March Madness 2026

Predictions locked before tipoff · digitally signed · publicly verifiable

4
Days
136
Predictions
12
Settled
50.0%
Accuracy (12)
0.3046
Avg Brier (12) ⓘ

This technique works for any decision worth proving — AI model outputs, policy changes, audit trails. The predictions are a demo. The verification is the product. → assay-ai

How predictions are made: Consensus odds from every major US sportsbook, averaged after removing the house’s profit margin. No AI model — the market IS the prediction. Every day’s picks are digitally signed before tipoff. If any prediction is changed afterward, the signature breaks.
Digital signatures (Ed25519) — the same technology behind SSH and software updates. This is not betting advice.

2026-02-28

113 games
Hash: sha256:228ec260
Locked: 2026-02-28 04:00:03 UTC
Result: awaiting results
AwayHomePickProbSpreadScoreResultBrier
Loyola (MD) GreyhoundsHoly Cross CrusadersCrusaders53.3%-1.8-PENDING-
Saint Joseph's HawksRhode Island RamsRams62.6%-3.5-PENDING-
Boston Univ. TerriersAmerican EaglesEagles58.1%-2.5-PENDING-
Virginia CavaliersDuke Blue DevilsDevils83.0%-10.5-PENDING-
Seton Hall PiratesUConn HuskiesHuskies89.0%-13.5-PENDING-
Colorado BuffaloesHouston CougarsCougars92.8%-18.8-PENDING-
Iowa HawkeyesPenn State Nittany LionsHawkeyes80.5%+9.5-PENDING-
NC State WolfpackNotre Dame Fighting IrishWolfpack71.3%+6.5-PENDING-
Florida St SeminolesGeorgia Tech Yellow JacketsSeminoles68.3%+5.5-PENDING-
Fordham RamsVCU RamsRams87.3%-12.5-PENDING-
New Mexico St AggiesMiddle Tennessee Blue RaidersRaiders67.1%-5.5-PENDING-
Cleveland St VikingsRobert Morris ColonialsColonials86.6%-13.5-PENDING-
UMBC RetrieversUMass Lowell River HawksRetrievers52.5%+1.8-PENDING-
Army KnightsLafayette LeopardsLeopards64.0%-4.5-PENDING-
St. Francis (PA) Red FlashCentral Connecticut St Blue DevilsDevils74.2%-8.5-PENDING-
Le Moyne DolphinsNew Haven ChargersDolphins52.6%+1.2-PENDING-
Fairleigh Dickinson KnightsLIU SharksSharks78.6%-9.2-PENDING-
Chicago St CougarsWagner SeahawksSeahawks66.4%-5.2-PENDING-
Missouri TigersMississippi St BulldogsTigers51.0%+1.5-PENDING-
Georgetown HoyasXavier MusketeersMusketeers64.6%-4.5-PENDING-
Florida Gulf Coast EaglesStetson HattersEagles56.5%+2.5-PENDING-
Austin Peay GovernorsBellarmine KnightsGovernors64.4%+4.5-PENDING-
Maine Black BearsBinghamton BearcatsBearcats50.5%-1.0-PENDING-
William & Mary TribeNorth Carolina A&T AggiesTribe68.9%+5.5-PENDING-
Oregon DucksNorthwestern WildcatsWildcats62.9%-4.0-PENDING-
New Hampshire WildcatsAlbany Great DanesDanes55.3%-2.2-PENDING-
San Diego St AztecsNew Mexico LobosLobos56.7%-2.5-PENDING-
Charleston Southern BuccaneersUNC Asheville BulldogsBulldogs62.0%-4.5-PENDING-
VMI KeydetsChattanooga MocsMocs83.8%-11.5-PENDING-
North Alabama LionsWest Georgia WolvesWolves67.6%-5.5-PENDING-
The Citadel BulldogsWofford TerriersTerriers85.3%-12.5-PENDING-
South Dakota St JackrabbitsSouth Dakota CoyotesJackrabbits55.8%+2.5-PENDING-
Gardner-Webb BulldogsSouth Carolina Upstate SpartansSpartans85.1%-12.5-PENDING-
St. Bonaventure BonniesGeorge Mason PatriotsPatriots66.6%-4.5-PENDING-
Campbell Fighting CamelsTowson TigersTigers65.0%-4.5-PENDING-
Fort Wayne MastodonsIUPUI JaguarsMastodons52.1%+1.0-PENDING-
Massachusetts MinutemenBowling Green FalconsFalcons67.2%-5.5-PENDING-
Youngstown St PenguinsGreen Bay PhoenixPhoenix54.9%-1.5-PENDING-
Mercyhurst LakersStonehill SkyhawksSkyhawks50.8%+0.0-PENDING-
Bucknell BisonLehigh Mountain HawksHawks67.4%-5.5-PENDING-
Tennessee St TigersTenn-Martin SkyhawksSkyhawks57.2%-3.0-PENDING-
Queens University RoyalsCentral Arkansas BearsBears57.3%-2.5-PENDING-
Central Michigan ChippewasBuffalo BullsBulls71.2%-6.5-PENDING-
Vanderbilt CommodoresKentucky WildcatsWildcats50.8%-1.5-PENDING-
Boston College EaglesMiami HurricanesHurricanes91.0%-16.0-PENDING-
Louisville CardinalsClemson TigersCardinals52.4%+1.5-PENDING-
UCLA BruinsMinnesota Golden GophersBruins51.8%+1.5-PENDING-
Oklahoma St CowboysCincinnati BearcatsBearcats79.6%-9.5-PENDING-
Elon PhoenixMonmouth HawksHawks59.7%-3.5-PENDING-
Sacramento St HornetsMontana St BobcatsBobcats77.6%-9.5-PENDING-
Radford HighlandersLongwood LancersHighlanders50.4%+1.0-PENDING-
UTEP MinersWestern Kentucky HilltoppersHilltoppers81.5%-10.2-PENDING-
Detroit Mercy TitansOakland Golden GrizzliesGrizzlies74.5%-8.0-PENDING-
Florida Int'l Golden PanthersLouisiana Tech BulldogsBulldogs56.3%-2.5-PENDING-
Bethune-Cookman WildcatsSouthern JaguarsJaguars51.2%-1.5-PENDING-
Utah UtesArizona St Sun DevilsDevils71.6%-6.8-PENDING-
South Carolina GamecocksGeorgia BulldogsBulldogs84.8%-12.0-PENDING-
N Colorado BearsIdaho VandalsVandals56.1%-2.5-PENDING-
Portland St VikingsMontana GrizzliesGrizzlies53.5%-1.5-PENDING-
Texas Tech Red RaidersIowa State CyclonesCyclones80.6%-9.5-PENDING-
NJIT HighlandersBryant BulldogsHighlanders56.1%+2.5-PENDING-
Northern Arizona LumberjacksEastern Washington EaglesEagles79.5%-10.0-PENDING-
Howard BisonMorgan St BearsBison78.3%+9.5-PENDING-
Abilene Christian WildcatsUtah Valley WolverinesWolverines88.4%-14.5-PENDING-
Southern Indiana Screaming EaglesArkansas-Little Rock TrojansTrojans69.0%-6.5-PENDING-
Valparaiso BeaconsEvansville Purple AcesBeacons64.1%+4.5-PENDING-
Presbyterian Blue HoseWinthrop EaglesEagles75.9%-8.5-PENDING-
Richmond SpidersLoyola (Chi) RamblersSpiders63.7%+4.5-PENDING-
SE Louisiana LionsNicholls St ColonelsColonels62.6%-4.5-PENDING-
San Diego TorerosPortland PilotsPilots61.3%-3.5-PENDING-
Air Force FalconsWyoming CowboysCowboys95.2%-22.5-PENDING-
Colgate RaidersNavy MidshipmenMidshipmen69.6%-6.5-PENDING-
Kansas JayhawksArizona WildcatsWildcats79.7%-9.5-PENDING-
Toledo RocketsOhio BobcatsBobcats51.9%-1.0-PENDING-
Nebraska CornhuskersUSC TrojansCornhuskers63.3%+4.2-PENDING-
Lipscomb BisonsEastern Kentucky ColonelsBisons55.7%+2.5-PENDING-
Northeastern HuskiesHampton PiratesPirates62.7%-4.5-PENDING-
Ball State CardinalsNorthern Illinois HuskiesHuskies52.4%-1.2-PENDING-
Pittsburgh PanthersCalifornia Golden BearsBears75.4%-7.5-PENDING-
Texas LonghornsTexas A&M AggiesAggies60.9%-3.5-PENDING-
Wisconsin BadgersWashington HuskiesBadgers52.4%+1.2-PENDING-
Norfolk St SpartansCoppin St EaglesSpartans75.9%+8.5-PENDING-
Lindenwood LionsWestern Illinois LeathernecksLions82.6%+11.0-PENDING-
Eastern Illinois PanthersSIU-Edwardsville CougarsCougars69.3%-6.0-PENDING-
Stephen F. Austin LumberjacksHouston Christian HuskiesLumberjacks75.5%+8.2-PENDING-
East Tennessee St BuccaneersMercer BearsBears52.9%-1.5-PENDING-
South Carolina St BulldogsMaryland-Eastern Shore HawksHawks68.2%-6.2-PENDING-
North Carolina Central EaglesDelaware St HornetsEagles54.7%+2.0-PENDING-
Tennessee Tech Golden EaglesSE Missouri St RedhawksRedhawks73.3%-7.5-PENDING-
North Dakota Fighting HawksNorth Dakota St BisonBison85.7%-12.5-PENDING-
Alabama St HornetsAlabama A&M BulldogsBulldogs54.7%-1.5-PENDING-
Delaware Blue HensKennesaw St OwlsOwls83.3%-11.2-PENDING-
Jackson St TigersTexas Southern TigersTigers66.4%-5.5-PENDING-
Colorado St RamsSan José St SpartansRams75.4%+7.8-PENDING-
Lamar CardinalsIncarnate Word CardinalsCardinals52.3%+1.5-PENDING-
Missouri St BearsSam Houston St BearkatsBearkats74.6%-7.5-PENDING-
BYU CougarsWest Virginia MountaineersCougars54.9%+2.0-PENDING-
Furman PaladinsWestern Carolina CatamountsPaladins50.5%+0.0-PENDING-
Alcorn St BravesPrairie View PanthersPanthers68.2%-6.0-PENDING-
East Texas A&M LionsUT Rio Grande Valley VaquerosVaqueros79.8%-10.0-PENDING-
Providence FriarsCreighton BluejaysBluejays58.7%-2.5-PENDING-
Syracuse OrangeWake Forest Demon DeaconsDeacons63.1%-4.5-PENDING-
Liberty FlamesJacksonville St GamecocksFlames61.1%+3.5-PENDING-
Weber State WildcatsIdaho State BengalsBengals53.0%-2.0-PENDING-
UNC Greensboro SpartansSamford BulldogsBulldogs79.5%-9.5-PENDING-
San Francisco DonsPacific TigersTigers63.8%-4.5-PENDING-
McNeese CowboysNew Orleans PrivateersCowboys78.1%+8.5-PENDING-
Jacksonville DolphinsNorth Florida OspreysDolphins51.6%+1.5-PENDING-
SMU MustangsStanford CardinalMustangs52.8%+1.5-PENDING-
Alabama Crimson TideTennessee VolunteersVolunteers66.0%-5.5-PENDING-
Oklahoma SoonersLSU TigersTigers54.6%-2.0-PENDING-
Miss Valley St Delta DevilsArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden LionsLions86.5%-13.5-PENDING-
TCU Horned FrogsKansas St WildcatsFrogs60.8%+3.0-PENDING-
curl -s https://haserjian.github.io/march-madness-2026/attestations/2026-02-28.json | python3 -c "import base64,json,sys; att=json.load(sys.stdin); from nacl.signing import VerifyKey; VerifyKey(base64.b64decode(att['signer_pubkey'])).verify(json.dumps({k:v for k,v in att.items() if k not in ('signature','signer_pubkey','signer_pubkey_fingerprint')},sort_keys=True,separators=(',',':')).encode(),base64.b64decode(att['signature'])); print('PASS',att['date'],att['n_games'],'games')"

2026-02-26

6 games
Hash: sha256:0002dced
Locked: 2026-02-26 04:00:02 UTC
Result: awaiting results
AwayHomePickProbSpreadScoreResultBrier
Charleston CougarsHampton PiratesCougars65.2%+4.5-PENDING-
Rhode Island RamsSt. Bonaventure BonniesBonnies57.4%-2.5-PENDING-
Bethune-Cookman WildcatsGrambling St TigersWildcats52.5%+1.5-PENDING-
New Hampshire WildcatsBinghamton BearcatsWildcats53.9%+1.5-PENDING-
Bryant BulldogsUMBC RetrieversRetrievers82.9%-11.0-PENDING-
Maine Black BearsAlbany Great DanesDanes71.0%-6.5-PENDING-
curl -s https://haserjian.github.io/march-madness-2026/attestations/2026-02-26.json | python3 -c "import base64,json,sys; att=json.load(sys.stdin); from nacl.signing import VerifyKey; VerifyKey(base64.b64decode(att['signer_pubkey'])).verify(json.dumps({k:v for k,v in att.items() if k not in ('signature','signer_pubkey','signer_pubkey_fingerprint')},sort_keys=True,separators=(',',':')).encode(),base64.b64decode(att['signature'])); print('PASS',att['date'],att['n_games'],'games')"

2026-02-25

8 games
Hash: sha256:b6aa9bdf
Locked: 2026-02-25 04:00:01 UTC
Result: 66.7% (2/3) · 5 pending Brier: 0.3658
AwayHomePickProbSpreadScoreResultBrier
USC TrojansUCLA BruinsBruins72.7%-6.862-81OK0.0746
UCF KnightsBYU CougarsCougars88.2%-14.097-84MISS0.7779
New Mexico LobosNevada Wolf PackPack50.5%-1.060-67OK0.2449
Bucknell BisonArmy KnightsKnights58.9%-2.5-PENDING-
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsBoston College EaglesDeacons64.4%+4.5-PENDING-
Morgan St BearsSouth Carolina St BulldogsBulldogs50.9%-1.2-PENDING-
The Citadel BulldogsFurman PaladinsPaladins91.5%-15.5-PENDING-
Oakland Golden GrizzliesIUPUI JaguarsGrizzlies68.8%+5.5-PENDING-
curl -s https://haserjian.github.io/march-madness-2026/attestations/2026-02-25.json | python3 -c "import base64,json,sys; att=json.load(sys.stdin); from nacl.signing import VerifyKey; VerifyKey(base64.b64decode(att['signer_pubkey'])).verify(json.dumps({k:v for k,v in att.items() if k not in ('signature','signer_pubkey','signer_pubkey_fingerprint')},sort_keys=True,separators=(',',':')).encode(),base64.b64decode(att['signature'])); print('PASS',att['date'],att['n_games'],'games')"

2026-02-24

9 games
Hash: sha256:29a94c55
Locked: 2026-02-23 20:10:03 UTC
Result: 44.4% (4/9) Brier: 0.2842
AwayHomePickProbSpreadScoreResultBrier
Nicholls St ColonelsLamar CardinalsCardinals61.1%-3.553-52MISS0.3728
Texas A&M-CC IslandersSE Louisiana LionsIslanders53.4%+1.573-68OK0.2168
Louisville CardinalsNorth Carolina Tar HeelsCardinals60.7%+3.574-77MISS0.3683
Houston Christian HuskiesEast Texas A&M LionsLions57.9%-2.569-68MISS0.3347
New Orleans PrivateersStephen F. Austin LumberjacksLumberjacks86.3%-11.577-73MISS0.7448
Incarnate Word CardinalsNorthwestern St DemonsDemons56.6%-2.049-54OK0.1884
UT Rio Grande Valley VaquerosMcNeese CowboysCowboys85.9%-11.568-75OK0.0200
Miss Valley St Delta DevilsGrambling St TigersTigers91.8%-15.562-83OK0.0068
Houston CougarsKansas JayhawksCougars55.2%+1.856-69MISS0.3053
curl -s https://haserjian.github.io/march-madness-2026/attestations/2026-02-24.json | python3 -c "import base64,json,sys; att=json.load(sys.stdin); from nacl.signing import VerifyKey; VerifyKey(base64.b64decode(att['signer_pubkey'])).verify(json.dumps({k:v for k,v in att.items() if k not in ('signature','signer_pubkey','signer_pubkey_fingerprint')},sort_keys=True,separators=(',',':')).encode(),base64.b64decode(att['signature'])); print('PASS',att['date'],att['n_games'],'games')"
Verify any day's predictions yourself (requires Python):

Checks that the digital signature is valid — proving the predictions existed before tipoff and haven’t been changed.

pip install pynacl
curl -s https://haserjian.github.io/march-madness-2026/attestations/2026-02-28.json | python3 -c "
import base64, json, sys
att = json.load(sys.stdin)
from nacl.signing import VerifyKey
vk = VerifyKey(base64.b64decode(att['signer_pubkey']))
unsigned = {k: v for k, v in att.items()
            if k not in ('signature', 'signer_pubkey', 'signer_pubkey_fingerprint')}
vk.verify(json.dumps(unsigned, sort_keys=True, separators=(',', ':')).encode(),
          base64.b64decode(att['signature']))
print('PASS:', att['date'], att['n_games'], 'games')
"

Full verification guide · Key fingerprint: sha256:81f878...d5e0d3

What this proves: Predictions were signed before being published and haven’t been modified since. Timing is evidenced by the public Git commit history.
What this does not prove: Exact wall-clock timestamps, prediction quality, or that this is betting advice. It is not.